Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Indices of the Southern Part of Aswan High Dam Reservoir, Lake Nubia

Egypt is one of the most vulnerable countries to the potential impacts and risks of climate change. More than 95 % of the water budget of Egypt is received from the River Nile, which is very sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Aswan High Dam (AHD) reservoir, one of the largest man-made lakes in the world, is almost the sole source of freshwater to the country; hence, Egypt realized the importance of protecting the reservoir from pollution. The global climate change effect on two water quality indices (WQIs) of Lake Nubia, the National Sanitation Foundation (NSF-WQI) and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME-WQI), was investigated in this study. The investigation was conducted for the 21st Century by using the outputs of eleven global climate models (GCMs) for two global emissions scenarios combined with hydrological modeling. To estimate the water quality indices of Lake Nubia in the future, a model was presented using a two-dimensional, laterally averaged, finite difference hydrodynamic and water quality code, CE-QUAL-W2. The model was calibrated and verified with measured data series from the years 2006 and 2007, respectively. The results show that future climate change will slightly affect the investigated indices.